"Breaking: key vote Kennedy VERY uncomfortable striking down #prop8."

"Suggests dismissing case. Would leave in place 9th Cir pro-#ssm ruling."

There are not 5 votes to strike down #prop8 and recognize equal right to #ssm at this time

SCOTUSblog tweets from the oral argument.

Note the significance of "Would leave in place 9th Cir pro-#ssm ruling." Prop 8 will still be stricken down, because that's what the 9th Circuit decided. I want to see the transcript (and hear the oral argument) before reacting too much to these characterizations.

So Kennedy performed the Theater of the Very Uncomfortable. That could set the stage for exercising the very painful duty of pronouncing a law a nullity. It's supposed to hurt! It's not what we want, but what we must do.

(Calling judicial review a "painful duty" has a long pedigree.)

MORE: Here, from SCOTUSblog's Tom Goldstein:

The Justices seem divided on the constitutionality of Proposition 8 on ideological lines, four to four – i.e., all the members other than Justice Kennedy. For the more liberal members of the Court, there was no clarity on how broadly they would rule.

But Justice Kennedy seemed very unlikely to provide either side with the fifth vote needed to prevail. He was deeply concerned with the wisdom of acting now when in his view the social science of the effects of same-sex marriage is uncertain because it is so new. He also noted the doubts about the petitioners’ standing. So his suggestion was that the case should be dismissed.

If those features of the oral argument hold up – and I think they will – then the Court’s ruling will take one of two forms. First, a majority (the Chief Justice plus the liberal members of the Court) could decide that the petitioners lack standing. That would vacate the Ninth Circuit’s decision but leave in place the district court decision invalidating Proposition 8....

Second, the Court may dismiss the case because of an inability to reach a majority. Justice Kennedy takes that view, and Justice Sotomayor indicated that she might join him. Others on the left may agree. That ruling would leave in place the Ninth Circuit’s decision.

But of course Kennedy would hang back in contrast to the 4 liberal Justices. His difference from them doesn't mean he won't join them in the end.

I'll say more when I've heard the argument myself. 

"[A] majority of the Court seems committed to invalidating Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act..."

Writes Tom Goldstein after the oral argument in the Supreme Court today:

The vote seems quite likely to be five to four. The more liberal members pressed both the narrow argument that an Alabama county was not a proper plaintiff because it inevitably would be covered and the broader argument that there was a sufficient record to justify the current formula. But the more conservative majority was plainly not persuaded by either point. It is unlikely that the Court will write an opinion forbidding a preclearance regime. But it may be difficult politically for Congress to enact a new measure.

Adam Liptak recounts the "tough questioning... from the Supreme Court’s more conservative members":

Justice Antonin Scalia called the provision, which requires nine states, mostly in the South, to get federal permission before changing voting procedures, a “perpetuation of racial entitlement.” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked a skeptical question about whether people in the South are more racist than those in the North. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy asked how much longer Alabama must live “under the trusteeship of the United States government.”

The court’s more liberal members, citing data and history, said Congress remained entitled to make the judgment that the provision was still needed in the covered jurisdictions.

“It’s an old disease,” Justice Stephen G. Breyer said of efforts to thwart minority voting. “It’s gotten a lot better. A lot better. But it’s still there.”

I look forward to reading the transcript later today. The issue isn't whether there are still some racial inequities in voting procedures, but whether federal law can continue to treat some states differently from others based on a calculation using statistics from 1972.

ADDED: Here's the transcript (PDF). I'll extract some good parts when I can.